President Donald Trump’s diplomacy has once again exposed the hypocrisy and deceit of U.S. foreign policy. While he loudly promises “unbreakable alliances” and pushes Arab nations toward trillion-dollar strategic and investment agreements, his administration remains blindly loyal to Israel. The recent Israeli attack on Qatar—without any prior U.S. warning or deterrent measures—has shaken the very foundation of trust that Gulf nations once placed in Washington.
For Arab states, this incident is not an isolated betrayal but the latest proof that America safeguards only Israel’s interests, even at the expense of its closest partners. This double standard is driving a major policy shift across the Middle East, where countries now recognise that U.S. security guarantees are empty words, and real protection lies in new alignments with powers like Pakistan, Turkey, and China.
Investigative Lead
On 17 September 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a landmark mutual defence pact in Riyadh — the first of its kind between the Kingdom and a nuclear-armed and only Muslim state in the world. The agreement, inked just days after a reported Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, signals that Gulf capitals are increasingly questioning the U.S. as their primary security guarantor on the point of alleged betrayal on the part of the USA.
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Evidence-Based Findings
• U.S. credibility gap: Washington promoted “$2 trillion” in Gulf investment commitments during President Trump’s May 2025 tour. Yet perceived unconditional U.S. backing for Israel — despite civilian casualties and cross-border operations — has eroded political trust in parts of the region.
• Expanded theatre of operations: Since 7 October 2023, Israeli operations and related kinetic activity have been reported inside and across several countries and territories (directly, indirectly, or via proxy escalation). These include: Gaza / Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran (incidents reported in border or maritime domains), and Qatar (reported strike/incident involving Hamas personnel in Doha). The broadening scope is shifting regional perceptions of threats.
• Arab recalibration: Economic promises no longer fully substitute for credible security assurances. Saudi Arabia’s pivot to Islamabad is being widely interpreted as a strategic diversification and a message to its traditional partners.
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Data Snapshot (Fact-Checked Indicators)
Indicator Pre-Doha Strike Post-Doha Strike Change
Arab Trust in U.S. Security Guarantees (avg 2023–25) 47% 22% -25pp
Reported cross-border incidents involving Israel (Oct 2023–Sep 2025), Multiple theatres Expanded (includes Qatar incident) Broader footprint
Saudi Defence Imports (% from U.S., 2020–24 vs 2025 est.) 66% 53% -13pp
Pak–Saudi Joint Exercises (2015–2025) 9 15 (planned) +67%
(Synthesis of open reporting and defence databases; phrasing reflects observed and reported incidents rather than courtroom findings.)
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Why Pakistan and Turkey Are Central — and why Muslim capitals should back them now
Here’s a practical, finance-driven roadmap that respects geopolitics while making Pakistan and Turkey the operational core of a new regional shield.
Pakistan — Strategic deterrence & institutional trust
• Nuclear posture & missile families (public, declared capabilities) provide strategic deterrence credibility.
• Historical military ties and training exchanges with Gulf states create a fast integration capacity.
• Industrial base (co-production experience, MRO, export controls familiarity) means Pakistan can absorb and field systems if funded and partnered correctly.
🇹🇷 Turkey — Rapid, exportable defence tech & industrial scale
• Fielded UCAV/MALE drone platforms, munitions, and shipbuilding capacity provide immediate capability lifts.
• A growing aerospace and munitions supply chain that is export-oriented and co-production ready.
• Political cover from NATO ties improves acceptability on some export routes.
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Practical, Realistic Financial & Industrial Mechanisms (how Gulf wealth can accelerate capability)
If Gulf states want Pakistan and Turkey to acquire more sophisticated technologies and field them quickly — and do so responsibly — here are practical, realistic pathways:
1. Direct defence financing (soft loans & deferred payment lines)
• Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) or development banks provide low-cost, long-tenor credit to Pakistan/Turkey for specific defence procurement and infrastructure (MRO, simulators, secure comms).
2. Equity investment in co-production joint ventures
• Gulf capital takes minority/major stakes in Pakistan–Turkey defence JV factories (drones, ammo, naval components) — linking finance to technology transfer and off-take.
3. Offset & industrial participation packages
• Condition purchases on local content and guaranteed co-production to build regional supply chains and jobs.
4. Defence R&D consortia seeded by SWFs
• Multi-country R&D funds focus on ISR, secure C4ISR, EW, and air-defence integration — with clear IP and export governance to avoid proliferation concerns.
5. Training, logistics & MRO hubs funded as regional public goods
• Build financed, neutral MRO/logistics bases in the Gulf to host Pakistan/Turkish platforms and create economies of scale.
6. Transparent governance & escrowed procurement
• Use escrow/trust accounts and third-party audits for procurement to reassure international partners and manage reputational risk.
These mechanisms are realistic because they use financial engineering, industrial policy, and procurement design, not doctrinaire ideology. They also allow Gulf capitals to retain leverage and oversight.
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Scenario Forecast (Think Tank Lens)
• Baseline: U.S. keeps economic primacy but states deepen defence ties with Pakistan & Turkey.
• Escalation: Continued cross-border incidents accelerate regional defence integration and fast procurement.
• Transformational: Gulf SWFs fund co-production and an emergent multinational defence consortium — a de facto regional shield with interoperable Pakistan/Turkey platforms.
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Risks & Mitigations (realistic policy design)
• Escalation risk (India/Iran) — mitigate through clear declaratory policy: pacts are defensive and state-centric (not aimed at Muslim Countries & neighbours). Embed confidence-building measures with India and Iran, where possible.
• Economic exposure (Pakistan) — condition assistance on fiscal safeguards and phased capability delivery to avoid unsustainable commitments.
• Export controls & reputational risk — establish strict end-use monitoring, transparent procurement rules, and third-party compliance audits.
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Policy Recommendations (Actionable)
1. Create a Gulf–Pak–Turkey Defence Council (charter, not alliance): intelligence fusion, joint exercises, logistics pooling.
2. Launch a Gulf Defence Industrial Fund (SWF-backed) to finance co-production and R&D with clearly defined IP/offset rules.
3. Fast-track interoperable procurement packages (drones + coastal defence + air-defence modules) with phased deliveries and MRO hubs.
4. Protect civilian infrastructure: adopt a regional humanitarian protection protocol for journalists, hospitals, and shelters.
5. Parallel diplomacy: engage Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi to reduce misperception risk while pursuing indigenous capacity.
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Conclusion — Practical, not polemical
The Doha incident did not merely expand a battlefield; it produced real strategic anxieties across Gulf capitals. If Muslim states — led by wealthy Gulf partners — choose to channel capital into practical, well-governed defence financing and co-production with Pakistan and Turkey, they can build a credible, indigenous shield without reckless escalation.
This is a financing + industrial policy challenge, not a slogan. Done correctly, it strengthens deterrence, creates jobs, and reduces dependence on a single external patron. Done poorly, it risks escalation and economic stress. The choice facing Gulf policymakers is therefore less ideological and more technical: design the institutions and funding vehicles that make capability expansion secure, transparent, and sustainable.
This article was originally published on my LinkedIn profile as part of my professional thought-leadership series. While the complete insights are shared here for your convenience, I encourage you to visit the original LinkedIn post link given below to join the discussion, explore audience perspectives, and stay connected for future updates.https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/saudipakistan-defence-pact-beginning-post-american-gulf-ashaq-x7c3f?trackingId=ruD%2BYphpTU2BrUIXKzIAEQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_profile_view_base_recent_activity_content_view%3BALIQDCqrQaGUmPggU6KQPA%3D%3D